Fantasy Implications of the Ryon Healy Trade
By Rocco Minsk In the first major trade of the offseason, the Oakland A’s shipped Ryon Healy to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for reliever Emilio Pagan and prospect Alexander Campos. The Mariners are usually aggressive about kicking off the offseason hot stove as they did last winter with the Taijuan Walker trade to Arizona and general manager Jerry DiPoto struck again here. The flowing are the logical fantasy implications of the trade:
- Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are everyday mainstays in the A’s lineup in the wake of the trade. Prior to Olson’s late season rampage, there was talk that he would be in a platoon situation, siting against lefthanders. Healy at first base was a plausible platoon partner. However, Olson still exhibited serious pop against LHP with 4 HR in 53 PA, albeit with a dropoff in OBP. Olson’s career numbers against LHP in the minors are mixed, but it appears the A’s will give him the opportunity to show his ability to hit lefties on the major league level. Olson’s stretch run last year was too good to ignore and even if he experiences regression (and he will), his numbers make him an appealing option for someone with OF eligibility. Chapman’s defense grades highly in nearly every metric and that alone should be enough to keep him in the lineup every day. His hitting and power are added bonuses. Having said that, Chapman’s .257 BA in AAA last year was his highest at any stop. Still, a .250 BA and 30 HR and a strong likelihood and if you league tracks OBP instead of BA, Chapman’s higher than average walk rate should push his OBP to league average. Oakland is building a powerful lineup in relative obscurity and Olson and Chapman are definite buys at this moment.
- Ryon Healy’s value experiences a slight decrease. Although Healy put up decent power numbers in the spacious sewage bowl out in Oakland, the list of players who have experienced production drop-offs in Seattle is long (but this list does not include Nelson Cruz). First of all, to clarify about Oakland, people conflate the fact that the Coliseum is spacious with calling it a pitcher’s park. That is not 100% true. The Coliseum is spacious because the foul grounds are as expansive as the Gobi desert but the outfield is not as spacious with the Coliseum ranking 5th in the AL with most HR allowed. So it is a fair argument to say that Healy would experience a larger power dropoff going to Seattle. Healy’s career numbers in Seattle are ho-hum, checking in at 12-54 with 2 HR. In OBP leagues, with Healy playing a premium position and moving to an even larger ballpark, you should grade Healy down in next year’s draft.
- Emilio Pagan is an intriguing relief option. To say that the A’s had an unsettled closer situation last year is an understatement. The A’s finished last season with Santiago Casilla as their closer last season and Pagan could be given every shot to compete for the closer role this year. Pagan excelled last year in a middle relief role and what makes him an interesting closing option is his control; he walked only 8 batters in 50 IP. Oakland is a team on the rise and the closer position there in general will have more value next year.
- Alexander Campos is too far out from the majors to really get a handle on. He had excellent plate discipline in Rookie League ball, but needs to at least reach low A to start getting a feel for his viability as a prospect.