Fantasy Football Week 7 Buy or Sell
By Dan Marcus
We’re through six weeks of the NFL season, making it time to reassess some of the top players at each position. Wide receiver and tight end has many familiar names among the position leaders, but both running back and quarterback have some surprises. This article will examine two of those players in Carson Wentz and Doug Martin, clueing readers in on what they should expect from each player moving forward.
PHOTO: KEITH ALLISON
Carson Wentz finds himself as a top five quarterback regardless of format to start the season. His skill level is also a constant source of debate as is just how much progress Wentz has made in his second season, and a rational extension of that debate is how likely he is to continue being one of the elite fantasy quarterbacks. To start, it is worth noting that the Eagles are cutting his pass attempts greatly. In the first two games of the season, Wentz threw 39 and 46 passes respectively. Since then, he has attempted either 30 or 31 passes in every game. That puts him on pace for 552 attempts for the season, and an entire season of 30.5 passes would land him at 488. Both of those numbers are in stark contrast to his mark of 607 last season.
Of course, volume isn’t the only thing that determines fantasy value and Wentz has been extremely efficient this season. He is currently posting an elite 6.3 TD% rate, 7.7 Y/A, and 8.3 AY/A, which would have put him fourth, seventh, fourth in each category respectively last season.Therefore, fantasy owners would have to believe that Wentz is set to become an elite quarterback, or see his volume take off once again, for him to maintain this value all season.
I am not willing to make that bet, meaning that now is the time to sell Wentz. Now is the time not only due to his hot start to the season but also because of the quarterback situation around the league. Injuries have either shelved several quarterbacks long-term or put their short-term performance into question. The fantasy relevant names include Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Jameis Winston. That said, now is the time float Wentz to an owner in a rough spot at the quarterback position to fill other needs on your roster.
The crop of RB1s is populated by a lot of very unsurprising names through six weeks of play. Those that have been a surprise, Kareem Hunt and Chris Thompson to be specific, have been analyzed hundreds of times over so it’s difficult to add anything new to the discourse. On the other hand, Doug Martin is currently an RB1 in standard leagues as measured by points per game and is a mid RB2 in PPR leagues.
Martin is currently propped up by his two touchdowns in two games, but there is plenty more reason to be optimistic about his future production. For example, Martin has seen 65.8% of the Bucs team carries since his return to the field, a rather large number for a player coming off a three game suspension. This workload indicates his role is firmly secured and that his volume should increase as the season wears on. In the two games that Martin has been on the field, the Buccaneers fell behind and were forced to throw. In games the Buccaneers can build a lead in, which admittedly may be few, Martin will be relied upon to grind down the opposition. Given that his role is secure after just two games, Martin is a nice RB to buy in on without having to pay an elite price tag.