Early Season NBA Draft Kings Values
By Rocco Minsk We all know the winning recipe for NBA DFS by now – find two players getting bigger than usual minutes due to injury or other personnel shift and use them to subsidize the rest of your roster. Tried and true, at least for me it is. Early season presents lots of pricing arbitrage opportunities (although unlike NFL, players are not priced a month in advance). In this article, I will attempt to spotlight five players that I believe will outperform their likely low DFS price. I note that at the time that I write and post this article, only the pricing for the first NBA slate of two games is currently available so I am just speculating that these will be value players.
Jerian Grant – Kris Dunn is out, Cameron Payne is also on the shelf as is Zach Lavine. The Bulls don’t have much going on in the backcourt for the first month of the season and Grant will not have much competition for minutes at the point. At the end of last season, Grant got starter’s minutes and did not disappoint. In five April games last season, Grant averaged 10.4 PPG, 5 APG and 1.6 SPG. Those totals were over 23.4 MPG and he may play bigger minutes for the first month of the season. Anything under $5500 and you can count me in,
Jason Smith – I am a Wizards fan and it pains me to write this, but as you know, Markieff Morris is out at least until the end of October creating an opening in the frontcourt. Common wisdom has Kelly Oubre filling the void, but Smith has logged some decent time in the preseason and he has added a new element to his game, the three pointer. Smith needs to play 20-25 minutes per game to achieve value since I am guessing that he will start the season priced under $4000. He had 20 and 17 points in his last two preseason games while Oubre sucked. Personally, I will be looking to roster Smith the first week of the season.
Kyle Kuzma – This may not even be such an under the radar play, but we all know what Kuzma did during the preseason, even taking some of the attention from Lonzo Ball averaging 17.3 PPG this preseason. Now comes word that he may start the first two games of the season while Kentavious Caldwell Pope is suspended. I am concerned that Kuzma may have a 30 pt DK ceiling due to lower peripheral counting stats, but at his probable price, I will take that.
Yogi Ferrell – Seth Curry is out indefinitely to start the season and Rick Carlisle may give serious minutes to the combination of Dennis Smith Jr and Ferrell. If that is the case, count on Smith to do the scoring and Ferrell to pile up the more valuable stats of scoring and assists. Ferrell is a great multi category contributor and if given 25 minutes could put up 12 pts, 5 rebounds and five assists.
Milos Teodosic – Sometimes underhyped rookies present solid value in their maiden campaign. Teodosic is backing up Patrick Beverly who seemingly always plays hurt and is a good bet to play 20 plus minutes per night right away. Shooting is the issue, as Teodosic is more of a distributor, but his assists and steals could form a nice base of fantasy points.
PHOTO: KEITH ALLISON