Draft Kings NFL Week 6 Fades
By Rocco Minsk This is a new feature this week because let’s face it, this is a new site and I am trying to build traffic and it does not pay to give everything away in one article. In my prior Draft Kings previews, I have focused on players to be wary of and now I am including this as a standalone article covering possible fades who may not return value, generally focusing on one player per position, sometimes two. The point of this article is not to state that each player mentioned is going to absolutely suck, just that they will not perform to their price. Without further ado, here are our week 6 fades.
Matt Ryan ($7000) Ryan’s price has been slowly declining this season, reflecting his subpar performance, but not slowly enough. He has not reached 20 DK points since week 1 against Chicago and the Falcons have not been passing in the red zone very often, instead opting for Devonta Freeman to punch the ball in the end zone. In addition, the Miami defense is better than you think which may push the Falcons’ imminent offensive breakthrough off one more week.
Todd Gurley ($7700) Personally, I have gone to the well with Gurley nearly every week this season. One emerging trend disturbed me and that was Sean McVay’s usage of Tavon Austin last week. I can see Austin sliding into a scat back type role and Gurley’s premium value and play was based partly off his three-down role and his emergence as a solid pass catcher this season. Gurley will still get his touches and points, but any diminution of his workload spells underperformance from what is still a high price.
Carlos Hyde ($6200) Questions about his workload have also emerged as Kyle Shanahan turned to Matt Breida last week and has promised to use a hot hand approach in the backfield. Either way, even if Hyde gets most of the carries, Breida will continue to be involved as a pass catching back and run only players in bad offenses have little value (see, Ajayi, Jay)
Julio Jones ($8300) I tend to have some guts with my fades, unlike many prognosticators who pick a player just above the marginal line and call themselves a genius for making a “sit em” call. Jones is a pretty obvious fade, although he is well above the marginal line. Ryan is spreading the ball around more often and Jones is not seeing red zone targets. Hopefully, Jones is healthy again after a hip flexor injury, but I would continue to sit Julio until he either breaks out or his price falls to reflect his production.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6800) All of Arizona’s wide receivers are either healthy or are nearing health. Fitzgerald’s one outlier great performance came in a week where John Brown and J.J. Nelson were both ailing. Carson Palmer has too many weapons to focus on Fitzgerald like he had in the past.
Jordan Reed ($5000) Reed has not remotely looked the part of premier tight end this season, but his price still has not come down to reflect it. He has been injured (surprise) and Cousins has not yet gotten in sync with any of his receivers not named Chris Thompson (who is not technically a receiver). Anyone who starts Reed above a cheaper option like Cameron Brate is asking for trouble.
New England Patriots ($3300) Draft Kings prices for defenses are based primarily on matchups so this price does not reflect the fact that the Patriots’ defense is not very good. Moreover, while the Jets are not a scoring dynamo, they really have not tripped over their own feet since week 2 against Oakland and a running and checkdown team won’t necessarily lead to big points for opposing defenses.