Week 6 Draft Kings NFL Value Plays
By Rocco Minsk I normally have very few issues with Draft Kings’ football pricing (golf pricing is another story). On the whole, I think pricing is usually very good and it makes it a challenge to roster a decent lineup every week. The one issue that I have is that Draft Kings prices the players on Sunday night prior to the Monday night game. I usually write my main weekly article on Monday nights so I suppose I am guilty of the same, but this means that there are Monday night developments that are not factored into the prices. This week, it will lead to serious chalk – I mean like close to 100% chalk. Below are my plays in the $5000 and under range for this week.
Kevin Hogan ($4600) I tend to go for the cheaper quarterback options. Most weeks it has worked out (McCown and Watson) and some weeks it has failed me bigly (Hoyer). Hogan is the cheap option of the week. He injected life into the Browns offense in the second half last week and goes up against a Texans defense that lost two of its pass rushers, including J.J. Watt. These cheap quarterbacks only need 15 points to exceed value and Hogan should do it here.
Jerick McKinnon ($4100) This is the aforementioned that I was complaining about above. He emerged as the main man in Minnesota (nice alliteration) on Monday night and should be on everyone’s radar screen except for the hardest of hard core contrarian. I, for one, am not afraid to start chalk and McKinnon should be 1000% owned.
Elijah McGuire ($4600) I discussed him in my main article yesterday. With Powell and Forte hurt, McCown will be the dump off king against the Patriots on Sunday. For those GPP swingers, McKinnon will be so heavily owned that McGuire may go unowned at this price unless owners want to roster two cheap running backs.
Alvin Kamara ($4500) Kamara is emerging more and more every week as Adrian Peterson slides further into Sean Payton’s doghouse. He is getting close to 50% of the reps and the rule of thumb in passing offenses is that the third down back is the most valuable back to own. If Powell or Forte plays this week, then Kamara becomes a better play at this price.
I will be the first to admit that my WR value plays have not been very good this season (I am not one of those pundits who look to find every way to make himself right retroactively and when I am wrong, I’m wrong) – I want to clarify that the point of this article is not necessarily to advocate rostering every one these players, but to provide a list of options in case you decide to go with a value play. With that necessary CYA and self-justification out of the way, I will say that I probably would not play any cheap WR this week, but would rather opt for a value running back given their superior upside. But anyways, here goes.
Adam Humphries ($4000) The baseline for a value play at WR should be 10 fantasy points and with Mike Evans facing coverage from Patrick Peterson, there could be some opportunities for the number two wide receiver to get some targets.
Ricardo Louis ($3900) As we mentioned in our main article, Louis established a nice connection in his first date with Kevin Hogan and they should have a second date together this Sunday.
Zach Miller ($2900) Mitchell Trubiksy did not do much throwing to his wide receivers on Monday night. Instead, he looked Miller’s way seven times including for a touchdown pass. Look for Miller to continue to be a safety net against a tough Ravens defense.
New Orleans Saints ($2700) Believe it or not, the Saints defense is not half bad this year and they are coming off of two double digit point weeks.
San Francisco 49ers ($2200) The 49ers appear here every week because they are usually good for 5-7 points, which is all you really need from a cheap defense. Personally, I don’t think that it is worth an extra $1500 to try to squeeze five points from a defense. It is better to spend that money to upgrade to an $8000 plus stud.
Miami Dolphins ($2000) The Falcons offense has not looked as good this season and has been vulnerable to giving up big plays to an opposing defense (the Lions game comes to mind). The Dolphins won’t need to shut the Falcons down, but they only need to avoid scoring negative points not to burn you at this price and they have not given up more than 20 points this season.