Week 6 Draft Kings NFL DFS Preview
By Rocco Minsk The Draft Kings DFS landscape this year has been challenging to say the least. It used to be a pretty tried and true method to find three studs plus reliable cheap options to subsidize them and head to the window to cash out. This season, there are few very tried and true studs capable of anchoring a Sunday team and the volatility at the top reaches has made consistent winning tough to execute. I would count there as two must-have options in your lineup this week that will be detailed below.
Deshaun Watson ($6700) The days of being able to sneak Watson in the $5000 range are waning and he is being priced like the near elite quarterback that he is becoming. I would still say that rostering Watson depends on the matchup, but this week he has a golden matchup against Cleveland. Myles Garrett does represent an improvement in Cleveland’s D, but if anything it will serve to increase Watson’s rushing totals.
Sam Bradford ($6000) I note that this article was written and posted prior to Bradford’s Monday night tilt against the Bears, but the Vikings have looked like an explosive offense with the wide receiver combination of Diggs and Thielen. Combine that with a depleted running game and a matchup with Green Bay, who just made an inconsistent Dak Prescott look very good and Bradford is a solid starting option.
Kareem Hunt ($8200) This is the first must-have of the week. While Hunt has not found the end zone in the last two weeks, he is clearly getting fed. This is not the same Pittsburgh rushing defense of the past and accordingly, this is not a matchup to be shied away from. There are not many players on the landscape this season that you can pencil in for 20 points in a week, but Hunt is one of them.
Leonard Fournette ($8000) This is the second must-have of the week. The Jaguars have dropped any pretense of having a quarterback or wide receivers and have turned to Fournette plus a stout defense to carry the team. His price has escalated to be on par with his production, but you should be willing to pay for the consistency.
Chris Thompson ($5000) A matchup with the 49ers defense is gold for any running back – they even made the Colts’ backfield look good last week. Rob Kelley is still nicked and Samaje Perine still sucks – Thompson is the back to play in the Washington backfield, despite his struggles last time out against the Chiefs. If anything, his last rocky outing makes his price more reasonable for this week.
Elijah McGuire ($4600) Bilal Powell and Matt Forte are both hurting. If both are out, McGuire holds the keys against a Patriots defense that has looked like a cruel hoax this season. McGuire may not put up the numbers that he did against the Jaguars two weeks back, but he does not have to for this price. If either Forte or Powell are in the lineup this week, the pivot at this price would be to Alvin Kamara.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8100) Welcome back to the elite tier, Mr. Hopkins. The options above Hopkins on the pricing list this week are either too inconsistent or have too many question. Hopkins has the top quarterback delivering the ball and the weak Browns secondary who yielded two TD passes to Josh McCown to face.
Michael Thomas ($7300) In the past, it has usually been risky to rely on a Saints receiver due to their inconsistency from week to week (much like relying on a Patriot), but the Saints have fewer weapons this year than in the past and Thomas has been drawing a steady 8-10 targets per game with a floor of 15 DK points which merits this price.
Mike Evans ($6900) Evans has not lived up to his potential this season, be it Jamies Winston’s inconsistencies, or the presence of DeSean Jackson and the emergence of Cameron Brate. His price is falling to reflect that and it has now dropped into the range where it merits a long look at a player who is usually good for 15 pints with lots of upside who has a matchup against a Cardinals secondary that Carson Wentz shredded last week.
Michael Crabtree ($5800) Throw out the week where Crabtree was injured in the game and he has gone for 14, 20 and 32 points. Amari Cooper has been a complete non-factor and E.J. Manuel barely even look his way last week. This price factors in EJ Manuel, but there is a chance that Derek Carr plays next week. Crabtree’s price keeps dropping each week, which is inexplicable. He should be chalky this week, but chalk that should be owned.
Ricardo Louis ($3900) I admit to taking some beatings trying to speculate on cheap Cleveland Browns receivers and Louis is the latest in the line of interchangeable pieces plugged in by the Lake Mistakes. If Kevin Hogan is the starter, Louis becomes an intriguing option as the two of them developed a nice rapport in the second half against the Jets and you have to figure that the Browns will be throwing often against the Texans D who suffered several key injuries last week.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($4300) On a Jets team with terrible wideouts, ASJ is rapidly becoming the receiver to own on the Jets and would make a great play at the TE slot or even in the flex hole. His expectation would be for 10 points, which would go up in the event that he keeps drawing red zone targets.
Cameron Brate ($3900) I admit to being shocked when I saw that Brate’s price held relatively steady from last week notwithstanding the fact that he has scored TD’s in each of the last three weeks. The matchup only gets better this week and Brate gives top production at a discounted price. This will likely be the last week where Brate can be rostered for under $4000.
A quick note about the defensive position this week. There is almost no shutdown defense in the NFL this season that merits paying top dollar for. If you pay top dollar for a defense, you are burning $1000+ for what could be a five point difference at most. I usually go for cheap options on defense that border on punting the position. With that in mind….
New Orleans Saints ($2700) Not sure if this unit is actually that good or the Dolphins offense just sucks that badly, but the Saints defense has been surprisingly good the last two weeks. Matt Stafford will be playing hurt this week which could lead to a couple of sacks and a turnover.
I will focus on additional defenses in my value plays article coming out on Wednesday, I wanted to save some ink for that posting.