NFL Week 5 Draft Kings DFS Preview
By Rocco Minsk Week 5 – NFL DFS Picks – Week 4 is in the books in the NFL and it was not a kind one for fantasy owners as injuries took their toll on fantasy football. On a human level, I do understand Richard Sherman’s critique of fantasy football that he gave on Sunday night. While we are saying that it was an unkind week for fantasy owners, that is because many players got hurt, impacting their physical well being and their careers. So there are worse things in the world than having to retool my fantasy team. I for one, will always try to think of the human element from here on out for at least a minute before I worry about how it impacts my fantasy team. Leave it to Richard Sherman to speak the truth. He is a gem. With regard to the action on the field, the injuries as always create DFS opportunity which we will analyze because after all, we are gamers at heart.
This is the first of the bye weeks, and between bye weeks and Draft Kings chopping off the Sunday night game from the schedule, there seem to be less options this week and not as many routes to roster construction. Without further ado, here are our picks for Week 5 NFL DFS.
Russell Wilson ($7100) Wilson’s early season struggles appear to be behind him and he was red hot in the second half against the Colts on Sunday. Seattle will struggle to run the ball with Chris Carson injured and pretty much the entire offense will have to run through Wilson. From here on out, Wilson’s floor will be 20 DK points
Jared Goff ($5300) Goff will appear on every DFS list this week. Look for Goff to be very chalky this week as a large number of gamers try to find the next Deshaun Watson, which we were all over last week. This game promises to be a high scoring affair and Goff is way cheaper than Wilson
Todd Gurley ($8000) Initially I was hesitant to recommend Gurley given how far up his price has gone, but Gurley is a much surer bet to crack 20 DK points than other options that are this price (I’m looking at you A.J. Green). As long as he is below $9000 and performing at this level, Gurley needs to be in your lineup every week
Carlor Hyde ($6900) Even with the Niners offense laying three eggs in four weeks, Hyde has been getting his fantasy points. Combine that with the fantasy tonic known as the Colts defense and Hyde becomes a viable option at this price. I would prefer him at this price to Fournette, who draws a tougher matchup against the Steelers.
Duke Johnson ($4,900) Johnson is the first of a plethora of RBs in this range and every owner should have one of these three. DJ has established himself as the only reliable receiver on the Browns, who should be more competitive this week against the Jets. He seems to be a lock for six catches a game, which in addition to his rushing yards give him a floor of 12 points
Ameer Abdullah ($4,700) His development continues as he is firmly entrenched as the lead back in Detroit. A tough matchup beckons as Carolina is stout against the run and you should check the injury reports, but this is a primo price for a lead back who always seems to be getting into the passing game
Andre Ellington ($4,600) I will predict that Ellington is the highest owned player this week. Other options that the Cardinals have tried to use to fill in for David Johnson have been dudly, so look for Ellington to get some carries in addition to his passing game work. 15-20 touches are reasonable to expect in the wake of Ellington’s explosion against the Niners. Look for the Cardinals to be throwing on Sunday, which means 6-8 catches for Ellington and his home run potential is still there.
Antonio Brown ($8400) I rarely make plays based on psychology, but look for the Steelers to look to get Brown more involved in the wake of Brown’s sideline histrionics last week. Brown never seems to have bad games twice in a row, alternating 30 point games with clunkers. Jacksonville gave up 23 points and got gashed by the Jets rushing game, but the Steelers will want to take it easy on LeVeon Bell after giving him 35 carries last week.
Randall Cobb ($6,700) Davante Adams is out after that horrific hit that he suffered and Ty Montgomery is banged up (although early reports are that he will play against Dallas). Both of these could result in added targets for Cobb. Dallas’s defense has looked ordinary this season against lesser quarterbacks and Aaron Rodgers should have a field day here.
Brandon Marshall ($4,600) Marshall has drawn double digit targets for the past two games and the Giants cannot run the ball. This is a great price for a receiver who has been drawing this kind of volume. It is only a matter of time before Marshall finds the end zone.
Jaron Brown ($4,500) Brown has had two double digit target games in his last three, yet his price remains below $5000. Brown has only gotten better as Larry Fitzgerald has drawn lots of attention. This Eagles team can be beaten through the air and the Cardinals, like the Giants above, cannot run the football with David Johnson out.
Charles Clay ($4800) Clay started the year as a $3000 option, but is worth the investment, even at this higher price, with Jordan Matthews out for a month. Sometimes it feels like Clay is the Bills entire passing game and without Matthews, he will become more of a safety net for Tyrod Taylor. I would almost consider Clay as a flex play this week too.
Evan Engram ($4000) Speaking of TEs who jumped in value….This is a small price to pay for the number three option in a volume passing offense and Engram is a consistent fantasy option who always seems to net 10 points per game.
49ers ($2500) We were all over the 49ers last week and they returned solid value for their price. It only gets better this week against the Luck-less Colts who are a sack and turnover machine. Even if this is a high scoring game, the 49ers D should get its share of sacks and turnovers.
Jay Ajayi ($6600) Since he has no role in the passing game, Ajayi is solely touchdown dependent and if you have not noticed, TDs are in short supply when Jay Cutler is under center. I would not play Ajayi at any price over $5000 right now.
Ty Montgomery ($7400) While Montgomery is likely to play, his price should not be approaching star territory with injured ribs. Expectations need to be kept in check here
Keenan Allen ($7200) Janoris Jenkins is very good at football and he figures to give a lot of attention to Allen whose owners have to be frustrated about his inability to find the end zone.
Draft Kings bargain bin report coming tomorrow night and Dan Marcus will be sharing his Fan Duel picks as well.