Otto Porter Fantasy Outlook
By Rocco Minsk The fantasy outlook for Otto Porter Jr is not as rosy as it would seem. Porter is currently coming off the board in the 44th position in Yahoo league, buoyed by optimism about continued development in his 4th season in the league. However, using a 4th round pick for Porter is a wild overdraft and relies on potential that may not be realized. I will make the following arguments against Porter being selected where he is and will posit that he is more of a 7th round pick.
First, looking at Porter’s numbers, they steadily declined as the season wore on. If you remember, Porter got off to a lightning fast start last year, averaging 14.9 PPG and 8.6 PPG in November, along with 1.6 3PTFG and 1.9 SPG. Those numbers would make Porter a valuable fantasy commodity. However, Porter did not sustain those numbers over the course of a season. Post All-Star break, he average 10.8 PPG and 5.7 RPG. His FG% similarly dropped from .534 pre-break to .469 post break. Paying such a lofty draft price for a player without a proven 82 game track record is speculative at best.
Second, while I am primarily a numbers guy, you also have to look at Porter’s motivation this season. Porter never has been the most fiery or intense type of player, but after signing a max extension with the Wizards, one has to question how much Porter will be bringing it night in and night out this season.
Third, the early season injury to Markieff Morris will hurt Porter when he plays his best basketball, in the early season. Without Morris on the floor, Porter may not be able to patrol the wing, where he is at his most effective. In fact, last year, without Morris on the floor, Porter’s EFG dropped from 63% to 57%. Porter can count on playing most of his time in the early season with Kelly Oubre or Jason Smith and Porter lost effectiveness with Jason Smith on the floor last year. The only bright spot is that his USG increases from 14.6 to 16 without Morris on the floor.
Porter is not going to suck this year, but the question becomes what a fair price is for a player who will likely contribute 14 PPG, 6 RPG ,2 3PT and 1.5 SPG. Too much of the Wizards offense runs through Wall and Beal for Porter’s scoring to take a quantum leap forward, which is what it would need to do to justify his draft position. The end result is that you should not be afraid to draft Porter….if he drops to the 7th round. Let someone else take the plunge in the 4th.